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Australia On Covid Track? Yes – To Have A Top 40 Worst Death Toll By 2023
The pandemic has lasted 20 months. Looking forward over the next 20 months, for Australia to be measured fairly against other Covid ravaged countries, we can apply global world data showing how many have died in each age group in other similar countries.
Australia’s vaccination status in each age group is known, so we can estimate the next 20 months of deaths based on this.
Surprisingly – Australia may be on track to have a Covid related death/ million:
- greater than that of Sweden by 2023,
- and possibly even in the top 40 WORST in the world.
Reminder – Sweden – No vaccine mandates or passports, No lockdowns, No school closures, no segregated ‘FREEDOM’ Day, no Human Rights abuse, simply…FREE.
How-so the lockdown pundits cry – impossible! We have saved Australians by the thousands according to the fanciful Covid modellers…
Australia Versus Sweden Today
Before vaccines were available, the only reason Sweden ended up with a large initial Covid death rate, was because they didn’t focus on protecting the elderly – aged care particularly – enough. By the time the second wave hit Sweden, with only a 7% vaccination rate, they had very few deaths relative to others. They had used all their vaccines on the Elderly. Focussed protection. Much of their population were asymptomatically infected & now have natural immunity after infection.
Sweden currently has 1468/ mill deaths & is 47th in the world & getting lower daily.
Australia – currently has 270/ mill deaths, (Inc. ABS 5300 excess deaths to date- see next section) is 110th in the world – but on track toward the Worst Top 40 death rates globally with 1750/ mill deaths – possibly even 2200/ mill!
Lets have a closer look as to why…
Oz V Sweden – Totally different approach
Vaccination rates:
- Sweden 65.4% Fully, 69.6% One Dose, Recognises power of natural immunity after infection in those not at risk.
- Australia 54.1 Fully, 74.1 One Dose. No recognition of natural immunity after infection.
Not Enough Focus On The Elderly & Excess Deaths Due Lockdowns
Reality hits Australia with two big problems – one that’s about to come and one that we are already ignoring.
1. Covid Death In The Elderly Over Next 20 Months.
We will now open up with 80% of the population vaccinated – but we need as close to 100% in the upper – highly at risk- age groups. Covid discriminates by age exponentially.
To get 10 deaths requires on average infection of 350 in those over 85 yo and around 700,000 – and only if unhealthy – 20 yo’s. Oz hasn’t focussed on vaccinating the Elderly enough.
The world statistics show us – we need to do our utmost to protect everyone over 60 and those with known comorbidity. The elderly need the full dose – and boosters after 4-5 months – to be protected.
2. Excess Deaths – Non-Covid Related.
The massive elephant no one wants to admit or talk about.
ABS hard facts show 5311 Oz excess deaths & increasing daily since they started increasing during the pandemic. The last 6 months average is 699/m and increasing. These are real. Deaths. Already.
Worse – these don’t stop now – they keep on coming – even out of lockdown because the damage has been done. Using actual ABS data we expect at least 14000 more to come in the next 20 months. Using UK data extrapolated to the Oz population we can estimate it more likely as 26000. Oz is now on track to have some of the highest/ capita in the world excess death by the end of 2023. Yep – the lockdowns are to blame – just like the plethora of studies, and even the WHO warned us.
Problem 1 – The Elderly needed more focus.
We have not focussed on the elderly enough.
.
- The av. US death rate in those over 85 years old is 2,837/ 100,000 unvaccinated.
- For a 25 year old it is 7/ 100,000k [See fig 1]
We have concentrated & mandated vaccinating the young pointlessly. We should have been hell-bent on getting the older adults and unhealthy of all ages as close to 100%. Focussed protection – that many world-renowned epidemiologists have been shouting out for the last 18 months.
[See: Covid, lockdown and the retreat of scientific debate] Politicians pushing lockdown strategies for political gain have actively tried to discredit the logical scientific alternative.
The enormous Covid age gradient has been persistently ignored by govt and media for political and financial gain.
Figure 1
Last 20 months of Covid-19 deaths in USA by age. Note the enormous age gradient 2837/ 100k for 85 yo’s vs less than 1/100k for a teenager. These cover the entire population – healthy or not. In the UK adjusting for known health problems the death rate for healthy under 19 yo/s is around 0.15/100k. Obesity is a major health factor in the USA.
We can use the death/ 100k and apply it to Australia’s population over next 20 months, adjusting for the vaccination rate. Treatments are better now, so that should reduce some deaths. Vaccination is not perfect however, and its efficiency is anything from 65 – 90% in preventing death according to Israeli data.
As can be seen, a small percentage difference in vaccination of the elderly produces a massive difference in deaths due to Covid’s enormous age gradient.
Importantly – recent data from Israel/ UK show the elderly must be double vaccinated to be protected. They also must have booster shots after 4-5 months to stop large death rates with ‘Delta.’ Oz needs to focus on the elderly as the utmost priority.
Figure 2
Estimated Covid-19 death in Australia over next 20 months using Figure 1 data. Vaccination rates applied with added buffer to account for increases in vaccination rates as per Oct 16 ‘TheAge.’ Percentages reduced by up to 5% in those over 60 to account for lack of boosters given by 4-5 months. Additional vaccinated deaths calculated assuming 65 – 90% vaccine efficiency. (Israel real world data.) Hopefully medical treatments may improve & substantially reduce projected deaths. Waning vaccine efficiency with time may increase death rates, particularly in the elderly.
The policy of vaccinating the young was to create herd immunity – which was thought to be possible with Alpha. All the evidence coming in about ‘Delta’ – and also the power of natural immunity after infection – was blindy ignored by the blinkered Oz public health officials. Too caught up in the power trip – (or was it vaccine kickbacks?) to review the world data coming in showing vaccine induced herd immunity was impossible with Delta. The lead professor of AstraZeneca even pointed it out in no uncertain terms – yet Australia continued to vaccinate everything that moved – other than the ones that really count – the over 60 yo’s and unhealthy all ages.
Problem 2 – That We Can’t Stop Now – Excess Deaths Due To Lockdowns
All death is not equal when it comes to government induced irrational fear during a pandemic.
By using endless lockdowns to focus on ‘Covid Zero’, Autstralia has not only simply delayed the incoming pain, but created far far more. By mid 2020 plenty of studies and warnings about extended lockdowns and the harms they do was falling on deaf ears to power drunk officials in Oz.
[See: Podcast: Jay Bhattacharya PHD on Public Health & Futility Of Lockdowns]
The Victorian Premier ‘Dictator Dan’ as he is fondly known & his sidekick ‘Sutley’ have proudly orchestrated the longest lockdown in mankind’s history in Melbourne. 255 days and counting.
Bravo! – but what did it really achieve?
Lockdowns Kill More Than They Save. Australia Is Now Proving It.
The unprecedented excess death toll tells the real success story of his and his Covid zero fanatic mates. 5311 excess deaths to June 2021, 699/month & increasing daily. These are all additional to Covid deaths. This is far higher than anything Oz has seen before.
Tragically – it is not unexpected, but has just been ignored for political gain.
Ironically – Covid zero policy puts the entire blame directly onto the government. Other countries with massive Covid outbreaks have apportioned some of the excess death on undiagnosed Covid cases, but that’s not the case in OZ. (CDC USA estimates 45,000 deaths due missed heart disease treatment alone, but it could be far higher with heart patients put down as Covid death cases )
Sydney Morning Herald Sep 30:
There were 163,595 fewer cancer-related diagnostic procedures for 14 cancer types in 2020.
As far back as mid 2020 doctors in Melbourne were warning of tens of thousands of missed breast, bowel, skin, throat, internal cancer screenings & a potential massive flow on death rate. Ignored. Similar with heart disease, diabetes, vascular problems, and Alzheimer /dementia diagnosis.
Most people recognise that lockdowns have caused in the very least, enormous mental health problems ,particularly in our innocent young. The enormous extent of the real effects however, have been overlooked because media has focussed on relatively small increases in suicide numbers, alcohol poisonings, drug abuse related deaths etc, & compared them to very large numbers of irrational fearfully – perceived – possible covid deaths as the alternative.
Barely a mention about the literally thousands who have now died & the thousands more who are sentenced to death, due to lockdown induced – lack of preventable death screenings.
How wrong, short sighted, brutal and deadly Oz government policy has actually been, and how right the anti lockdown pundits were screaming to stop the in-house murder from day one.
Australia’s death toll will likely increase over next few years before slowing & returning to normal. This is already presenting in the UK , where 70,000 excess non Covid deaths have occurred in last 20 months.
[See:England and Wales records more than 70,000 excess deaths in private homes since start of COVID-19 pandemic]
That’s 26,000 extrapolated for Oz’s population. We can hope for less, but a realistic absolute minimum estimation would 699/ m- the current rate – over the next 20 months or at least 14,000.
Australia On Track To Be In Top 40 WORST Death Rate Globally By 2023
Figure 3
Covid-19 pandemic death rates by country. Note that Australia is currently far worse than Wikipedia suggests if excess deaths to date are included. Oz could be in the Top 40 WORST death rate by 2023, even adjusting for some increased death in other nations over the next 20 months.
So What Can Australia Do Now?
So here we are in Oz – about to let it rip with some arbitrary vaccination percentages. The only option now is to hope for the best given our terrible handling to date.
Wrong.
We can still follow worlds best practice – the Nordic countries – to reduce the fallout.
- Hold a press conference. Admit that ‘Delta’ spread is not stopped by vaccination – so the elderly/ unhealthy understand they are at risk regardless and then
- focus heavily on vaccinating every last one of them.
Henceforth stop pointlessly focussing on vaccinating the healthy young & recognise those who have natural immunity after infection already.
Be cautious & halt vaccines that Nordic countries assess as providing more risk than benefit.
- Stop vaccine mandates now, instead – as per the Nordic way – advise what is best, & leave individuals to assess their own risk.
- Open schools immediately & use rapid antigen tests for aged care/ hospitals/ individuals at risk as soon as possible.
- Abandon destructive blanket lockdowns permanently
Honest information kindling self-preservation would do a far better job than pointless vaccine mandates to a vast majority who are not at risk.
Honest, rational fear – is just as powerful as manufactured irrational fear.
Within weeks the entire country could be opened up with such measures in place.
A refreshed public – free of the burden of destructive mandates and endless rules – would produce far better outcomes born of desire – not forced compliance.
The nordic countries show us this. Why not learn from them?
There is only one certainty now.
Australia – If it continues with the current madness – is on track for a Covid policy wooden spoon for both death-rate AND human rights abuse. 
LockemDownunder’s Dictator “Dan Dastardly”– Ozetypal political villain with his wheezily snickering health-kick “Suttley.” Most of Dictator Dan’s diabolical plans backfire, causing him to fall back into last place.
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