Table of Contents
Table of Contents
What’s The Chance Of Dying From Covid-19? – Really?
Simplified Odds Of Living By Age
There is a lot of harmful misinformation out there and unfounded irrational rumours in regard to Covid-19. In this article, we have used the credible CDC (The USA government Centre for Disease Control) and UK ONS (Office for National Statistics) published data and put it in simple terms, to show the real relative chances of death by age, from Covid-19.
IRRATIONAL FEARFUL RUMOURS vs FACT
In our last article, we published the most common misconceptions about Covid-19.
[Ref: Enrichlife.co Time To Fear Covid-19 Less And Be Rational – Covid-19 Deaths Now Less Than Flu Deaths In Wealthy Nations]
Here are a few examples of how misguided by irrational fear humans in the USA are found to be:
Focusing on the negative information from the media – Americans overestimate the risk of the virus:
- Americans believe that 50% of all COVID-19 deaths are people age 55 and older. The actual figure is 92%.
- Americans believe that people age 44 and younger account for about 30% of total deaths. The actual figure is 2.7%.
- Americans overestimate the risk of death from COVID-19 for people 24 and younger by a factor of 50.
Prior to vaccination protection;
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of people that carry the infection, regardless of having clinical symptoms or not.
The IFR is the rate of death once you have the virus.
The CDC determined the Infection Fatality Rate of Covid-19 for various age groups (these calculations change over time with new information):
- 0.003% for 0–19 years, (Seriously close to zero chance of death)
- 0.02% for 20–49 years, (Virtually nothing)
- 0.5% for 50–69 years, and. (99.5% chance you will live)
- 5.4% for 70+ years. SO its about 5/100 chance of actually dying for over 70 y/o’s – IF you get it. No where near a certain death sentence as is the perception. This was BEFORE vaccinations!
For purpose of comparison, the World Health Organization has stated that influenza has an overall Infection Fatality Rate of 0.1% or lower
These facts have been know since around October 2020, when they were published by the WHO ( World Health Organisation) on their website.
THE FACTS
The simple facts about Covid-19 are – that it’s an old / and or unhealthy people’s disease.
The following table shows a simplified death rate and odds of death – ‘Chance’ – for unvaccinated people by age group.
Table Of Simplified Odds Of Living By Age [Ref. CDC USA]
As can be seen – the biggest factor is simply AGE
Long Covid
UK ONS estimates 10%* [updated Jul21] of those who actually contract Covid-19 and recover, may continue to experience some symptoms for 12 weeks or longer.
*Updated 1 in 10 Jul21 and very little in children. (1.6%)
This is known as ‘Long Covid.” Many viral infections have similar long-term symptoms after infection. It appears women, 25-34 are more susceptible. Children can get long covid, but the chances are small. No one dies of Long Covid.
Conclusions from this data:
The flu death rate chance at 1 in 1000 ( all age groups) is a good comparison and something we accept not to be irrationally afraid of. A chance of death of 1 in 5000 – means a chance of death five times less than the flu. Do you arrange your life fearful of the flu?? No one does. If your chance of dying from Covid-19 is far less than dying of the flu then you simply should not worry about it.
FIT YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR FROM COVID-19 ( <49 )
THE ELDERLY ARE THOSE AT REAL RISK ( >70 )
THE MIDDLE-AGED ( 50-69 ) ARE AT RISK FROM COVID-19 – BUT AT MORE RISK OF DYING FROM ANY OTHER CAUSES.
- It’s possible to get Long Covid if young. No one dies from Long Covid.
The Effect Of Pre-Existing Conditions
The biggest change to these odds occurs with any comorbidities – pre-existing medical conditions.
The table of odds includes ALL people – with or without medical conditions. If you have a medical condition – your odds of death are INCREASED. If you don’t have a medical condition – your odds are DECREASED from the tabled figures.
The most common comorbidities found to increase chances of death in all age groups were hypertension ( high blood pressure) hyperlipidemia (fats, cholesterol, and triglycerides in the blood) diabetes, and chronic pulmonary disease ( asthma, lung, and smoking diseases)
From CDC data, the risk factor can be increased for the most common comorbidities as follows:
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Cancer 57%
Heart Disease 47%
Stroke 39%
Dementia 20%
Diabetes 20%
Lung and Smoking-related disease 16%
Obesity 11%
Summarising – at any age your chances of dying tabled are increased with any pre-existing medical condition. The more pre-existing conditions, the more you must increase the odds of death from Covid-19 should you get it.
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If you are an overweight, diabetic, smoker aged 40 for example, you could say your odds were 1 in 5000 increased by about 11+20+16 – so nearly 50% increase, means about 1 in 2500 chance now of dying from covid-19 should you be infected. Still not significant compared to dying from the flu. ( 1 in 1000)
[Your chances of death from all other causes are increased too, however – it was already at 1 in 600 – so it was already high compared to the flu.]
Similarly, if you are a 55-year-old with similar, your chances would be now around 1 in 100 – or ten times worse than dying from the flu. Significant from Covid-19 now.
Additionally both US and UK studies found that;
Persons of male sex were associated with higher risk of COVID-19 death. Black persons or persons of South Asian race were also associated with higher risk of COVID-19 death.
From these figures, it’s easy to see why so many have died – especially in wealthy nations with an old population, and many pre-existing conditions that are largely being managed.
For over 70-year-olds – 54,000 deaths in 1000,000 (one million) infected ( 1 in 26 chance of death ) adds up very quickly.
Now we know why in many places such as Italy, New York, UK, and recently India and Brazil, hospitals were overloaded – and mass graves were being dug. The fact that across the world now there are so many OLD people – and the fact the middle-aged are largely obese, diabetic, and have heart and other diseases account for the enormous death tally.
The young, however, are simply not at comparable risk.
Their biggest danger is the effects of anxiety from the uninformed irrational fear.
A simply younger, healthier population accounts for the lower death tally in some Asian nations.
So Why Are Governments Trying To Stop EVERYONE At ALL AGE GROUPS From Getting Covid-19?
Good question.
Initially – at the start of 2020 – no government or health department in the world had any idea how dangerous Covid-19 really was – or to what age group. Blanket measures (Lockdowns) were used widely to stop its spread – a blunt instrument approach assuming it affected the entire population.
Most of this data was published in late 2020, so it has been well known this disease does not affect the young – unless they have comorbidities, since then.
To stop the spread to the old – the easiest solution once this data was known, was to continue stopping the spread in all age groups – despite the lack of risk to the young. If the young didn’t get it, they wouldn’t transmit it to the old.
The Great Barrington Declaration
At this time ( late 2020 ) Governments were presented with alternatives to blanket lockdowns such as the Great Barrington Declaration.
This was presented by a large group of prominent epidemiologists and public health scientists in an attempt to stop the damaging blanket lockdowns and use a – “Protect the vulnerable (Old)” approach until vaccines came.
Great Barrington Declaration Presented by a large group of prominent epidemiologists and public health scientists as an alternative to stop the damaging blanket lockdowns and use a – ‘Protect the vulnerable – (Old)’ approach until vaccines came. ( It was never tried because lockdowns were politically favourable to governments.)
Continuing With Lockdowns Was The Easy – Politically Popular Option
Governments of the world were already gaining unprecedented – record popularity with lockdown measures – due to uneducated – irrationally fearful populations – and – in the name of self-interest – outrightly rejected these measures.
They were too scared to even attempt something new – for fear of the fallout should unforeseen consequences eventuate.
As a result, it has never really been clearly spelled out to the public by governments of the world how age-dependent the mortality of Covid-19 really is.
In places like Australia – the lockdown measures and border closures are stricter than ever – even with vaccinations available to the public. (Go figure?😳) It remains incredibly popular.
Lockdowns are, however, incredibly damaging
There are real consequences of lockdowns too, however, apart from the devastating economic ones.
In the USA the CDC now estimates last year around 45000 extra deaths were attributed to heart disease and diabetes alone, due to patients’ fear of attending hospitals relating to Covid fears. Similar numbers again for cancers, strokes, and other treatable diseases. Similar percentages of populations dying globally would be expected as a product of lockdown measures. As example, this would equate to around 45000/330,000,000 x 25,500,000 or ~ 3475 deaths due heart disease and diabetes in Australia due to lack of sought care. The same number again for the preventable cancers, strokes etc etc.
In the UK a significant increase in alcohol-related deaths has occurred due to lockdowns. There was a 4.3/100,000 population increase in deaths due to liver disease – a 58% increase during lockdown periods. This is from a government study – it is not speculation. Those with already compromised livers from mild alcohol abuse literally died when exposed to a consistent period of increased intake. This would equate to around 1100 deaths in Australia’s population.
[Read: Monitoring alcohol consumption and harm during the COVID-19 pandemic]
Canada has just released a comprehensive report showing a massive > 50% increase in substance abuse – and associated deaths – due to blanket Lockdowns.
[Read ‘The epidemic within a pandemic:’ Opioid overdoses continue to make an impact during COVID-19′]
Extremely detrimental mental health effects – of the young in particular- have also been documented worldwide, with many associated deaths. Long-term effects are expected.
Border closures and quarantine measures have caused mass starvation in undeveloped nations, arguably killing more than Covid-19 – the actual disease – has to date in the developed world.
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Governments still don’t readily advertise the extreme importance of the age relationship and Covid-19 mortality.
Perhaps in the next pandemic, hindsight and the analysis of history will require that some more selfless thought is put in to come up with reasonable and appropriate strategies to be taken by governments to combat it.
Australia
Australia and New Zealand have attempted a zero Covid-19 strategy – which was supposed to be in place until vaccines came. Now they are in a pickle – because large portions of the population – incredibly – simply don’t want to get vaccinated.
In Australia, there are around 2.9 million over 70-year-olds, and a further 5.7 million 50 to 69-year-olds. [Ref.https://www.statista.com/]
Do the maths – you can see the sheer numbers of elderly there will cause many deaths in Australia unless a large portion of them are vaccinated.
It’s easy to see why the Australian government wants an election before Covid-19 is allowed to run rife in the population.
For the Flu to be overall more dangerous than Covid-19 to the Australian population, ( as in the UK now) it will require around 85% of the over 50’s and 95% of the over 70’s to get vaccinated, assuming it affects 10% of the population annually. Australia is nowhere near that yet.
Perhaps the importance of age and death needs to be heavily spelled out there now – to give some incentive. Crippling lockdowns there cannot – and should not – be maintained for much longer, especially after the vulnerable have been given a chance of vaccination.
Singapore
In a de facto recognition of the age-dependency of Covid-19 mortality, Singapore is soon to implement a policy which will allow Covid-19 to exist within the community as a managed pathogen such as influenza. Singapore will vaccinate a large majority of its population – particularly its elderly vulnerable, – then use rapid portable testing to help contain outbreaks in other vulnerable communities such as aged care or hospitals.
[REF: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/living-normally-with-covid-19]
Vaccinations are working incredibly well in developed nations.
Vaccinations in the UK have already reduced Covid-19 to a pathogen less deadly than the seasonal Flu/pneumonia.
Bottom line – If you are getting older – GET VACCINATED ASAP!
If you are reading this, and are over 70 – you would be foolish not to get vaccinated as soon as humanly possible.
If you are over 50 with comorbidity – the same applies. If you are over 50 and fit as a fiddle – you still have five times the chance of dying from the flu if you contract Covid-19. With more contagious strains about – it’s a darn good idea.
If you are young – Covid-19 is just not a life-threatening problem for you. The main reason for vaccination – would be to stop spreading it to the elderly that you interact with. Vaccination will also prevent Long Covid.
Conclusion
If you are in the at-risk group ( older ) and have been offered vaccination – GET IT – ASAP!
Coming Soon to Enrichlife.co
Simple Maths Debunks The Common Vaccination Rumours.
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