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VITAL BREAKTHROUGHS MEAN IT’S TIME TO SERIOUSLY RETHINK 2021 COVID LOCKDOWNS
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Vital new evidence and breakthrough testing ability suggest we should seriously rethink the 2021 COVID Lockdowns.
The W.H.O now recognises COVID-19 is much less deadly than flu for people less than 70 y/o. Above 70 y/o and for the obese, diabetics & other conditions it’s way more deadly. Additionally a new sophisticated – over the counter test – approved last week by the FDA can provide an accurate COVID-19 result within 20 minutes. In combination – Governments can now safely reduce the devastating impact of blunt instrument – one size fits all – lockdown measures that are showing to have seriously detrimental effects globally.
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VITAL NEW EVIDENCE – COVID-19 IS LESS DEADLY THAN FLU IN THOSE UNDER ~ 70 Y/O*
In a Bulletin of the World health Organisation, peer – reviewed and accepted, John P A Loannidis, one of the World’s most respected epidemiologists, reviewed a massive amount of global data in relation to COVID-19 fatality rates. He concluded that COVID-19 has a very steep age gradient for risk of death, but in those under ~ 70 years old it is LESS deadly than the Flu, and indeed for the very young it poses no significant threat greater than current pathogens present in the population. *In those aged ~ 45-65 y/o with diabetes, seriously obese, or some other dangerous pre- existing conditions, COVID-19 is also more dangerous than the Flu.
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Breakthrough Covid-19 Testing Ability
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Australian firm receives FDA approval for ‘breakthrough’ Covid-19 testing kit.
Last week an Australian company ‘Ellume’ was given FDA approval for a breakthrough Covid-19 testing kit. Ellume’s kits are used with a free phone app, and do not require samples to be sent to a lab, meaning it can generate a 96% accurate result in around 15 minutes, for both symptomatic and non- symptomatic cases.
“By authorising a test for over-the-counter use, the FDA allows it to be sold in places like drug stores, where a patient can buy it, swab their nose, run the test and find out their results in as little as 20 minutes,” Stephen Hahn, head of the FDA said in a statement.
Lamar Alexander, the chair of the Senate health committee, said: “This is a genuine breakthrough in Covid-19 testing.”
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Production is being ramped up to deliver 100,000 tests per day to the US from January, and to deliver 20 million tests within the first half of 2021. Lockdowns and travel restrictions are causing carnage globally, and such a test is crucial to prevent such measures. With this knowledge, Governments around the world should jump onboard immediately and spend the money to have many more multiples of these tests delivered globally as soon as physically possible. The magnitude of money spent on handouts and propping up economies to date is mind blowing to say the least, – it would be a tiny drop in the ocean to invest in fast tracking such a test that could potentially save world economies billions.
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Combining the Knowledge and Covid-19 Testing can lead to a Targeted Response – with potentially far less harmful side effects than blanket Covid Lockdowns.
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IDENTIFY AND PROTECT THE VULNERABLE ( >70 Y/O and 45-65 Y/O with Diabetes / Seriously Obese or other conditions)
One would hope that armed with this knowledge and testing, governments throughout the world can confidently change tact and finally identify and protect the vulnerable without such massive harm to the innocent in the process.
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One obvious, but not necessarily simple outcome, is to identify and target those over 70 and those aged 45-65 who have diabetes, are seriously obese, or other existing conditions that predispose to Covid-19 mortality. These people are the LEVEL 1 AT RISK group – and need protecting. Perhaps just they need to be isolated during periods of large Covid-19 outbreaks, leaving the majority – or a very significant portion – of the population to carry on as semi- usual. Masks, social distancing, rigorous contact tracing and open air measures would still remain – and everyone would still be trying to prevent contagion. Critically any contact with LEVEL1 AT RISK group would require a negative test within a few hours of contact, along with some sort of basic decontamination procedures. In this way the economy, could continue to function, schools, entertainment and universities could remain open. Non risk groups, children and the innocent would not suffer unnecessarily , and immeasurable lives and livelihoods would be saved both in first and third world countries.
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The result would have to be an enormous improvement to the current – ‘STOP EVERYTHING’ approach currently adopted by the UK , Australia, NZ and many European and other countries. Very importantly, it would ensure both the vital continuation of social interaction amongst the vulnerable young ( to mental health effects,) – as well as social interaction of the AT RISK group through robust testing and procedures prior to contact.
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Additionally the ” COVID-19 LOCKDOWN FATIGUE” – which is currently largely hindering the effectiveness of the lockdown measures, would be somewhat mitigated. Self preservation would give incentive for the AT RISK group to comply. (Perhaps it should be up to them to decide if they 100% wanted to?) The non risk group would now have semi normal lives – and be more sympathetic and focussed on the risks of contact without testing / procedures to those AT RISK.
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BUT WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE CURRENT COVID LOCKDOWNS & BALANCE??
Unless you have been living under a rock for the last 8 months you will – along with every government in the world – recognise there are severe and devastating unintended consequences from harsh blanket lockdown measures. The featured image summarises the balancing act.
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What is the aim of Covid-19 Lockdowns?
When COVID19 first surfaced, and until very recently, no-one confidently knew who were the AT RISK groups. It was assumed EVERYBODY was in severe danger, so it is understandable how the initial measures were deemed appropriate. The data about how successful lockdowns have been in actually containing COVID19 is nebulous at best. It is very likely that many of those at risk have been spared due to the lockdown measures. Exactly how many is unknown.
The whole point of the lockdowns initially was to prevent rampant contagion, thereby reducing number of immediate cases and allowing at the very least, for the countries’ medical systems to have the capacity to cope. Originally the mantra was to ” Flatten the Curve ( Peak Cases) ” – but many governments instead seemed to adopt a flawed approach and be hell bent on eradication.
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The Unintended Consequences of Harsh Blanket Covid Lockdowns
This has meant extremely long and harsh covid lockdowns, and resulted in enormous economic damage and loss of livelihood. Unprecedented anxiety and mental harm has been inflicted on to innocent children and the vulnerable. The resulting failed businesses, and abrupt halt in travel and tourism has had a flow effect of massive poverty, starvation and ultimately deaths of largely children in the third world. It is estimated that in Australia alone, the lack of preventable Cancer screenings during Lockdowns ( Due unwarranted fear of hospitals) – will account for thousands more deaths than from COVID19. Life threatening eating disorders amongst teenagers have ballooned, along with anxiety, depression suicide and drug overdoses. The picture is the same world wide, and only now governments are coming to terms with the far reaching unintended consequences.
See:
Unmasking the Devastating Impact of COVID-19 on Children Worldwide…
and:
Surge in Eating Disorders Reveals Tragedy of Lockdown
and:
Lockdowns for COVID19 Fail The Medics ‘Do No Harm’ Rule
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Covid Lockdowns scales are currently NOT Balanced
It is clear now ‘Blanket Covid Lockdowns’ are possibly as destructive – if not overall more harmful to humanity on a global scale than COVID-19 itself. Governments need to attempt to REDUCE OVERALL EXCESS GLOBAL DEATHS ( ie third world as well) – AS WELL as minimise lifelong and changing harmful economic and mental health effects on its own people.
The good news is NOW WE KNOW EXACTLY WHO IS AT RISK – so measures to contain COVID-19 damage can be amended accordingly. The excellent and- immediate result- testing available adds volatile fuel to the argument.
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COVID-19 VACCINES ARE COMING – SO WHY BOTHER CHANGING TACT?
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VACCINES WILL TAKE LONGER TO FULLY IMPLEMENT THAN THE CURRENT PANDEMIC HAS TAKEN…
This pandemic really ‘Started’ in March 2020 when it was finally recognised how contagious and deadly to those at risk COVID-19 actually was. That is only 9 months ago.
Yesterday ( Dec 28th) Australia announced it expected to have most of its population vaccinated by October 2021. Similar time scales apply to most countries in the world. The pandemic has a long way to run just yet. Australia is an advanced, first world wealthy country, – and October 2021 is 10 months away from now. Potentially globally we have a longer period of outbursts and lockdowns than we have had to date.
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IS A TARGETED APPROACH REALLY FAIR ON THOSE LEVEL1 – ‘AT RISK’ GROUPS?
The question should be – How can we accept the risk of serious and deadly harm to our children, those not “AT RISK” and the innocent families of third world countries that the current non targeted ” Blanket Lockdowns” are known to inflict? Regardless, only having a portion of the population somewhat restricted must be far better than imposing restrictions on absolutely everyone.
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Remember, in my simplistic solution outlined to date, AT-RISK groups would only isolate during large COVID-19 outbreaks. With testing advances available now they would also not be totally isolated as they have been before. Strict protocols and fast result tests can mean they would still be able to have social interaction – a vital ingredient for human long term health.
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WHAT ABOUT FAMILIES THAT LIVE TOGETHER WITH CHILDREN AND – AT RISK GROUPS?
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In Western countries such as UK, Australia, Canada, USA there are large groups of ‘NO RISK’ families living together whose lives could continue relatively unaffected. In families containing ‘AT RISK” along with “NO RISK” strict testing and measures would have to be taken to ensure no contagion. This may involve just one family member consistently caring for the “AT RISK” members, basic decontamination procedures would be in place and bathroom and kitchen utensils would have to be separated. This is nothing new however, except that now a fast covid-19 test before entering the home would enable ‘NO RISK” members to know that they are no threat of droplet contagion at least. Contingency plans would need to be made in case a not “AT RISK” family member contracted the virus.
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In poorer countries with many families living together this becomes more difficult. Hopefully smarter minds than I can come up with practical solutions to mitigate the threat to an acceptable level.
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What about “LONG-COVID?”
The ” Not AT RISK” groups would be interacting and despite measures in place to prevent contagion there would be some ( as there is now) who contract the Covid-19 virus. We know now however that the vast majority would be unaffected seriously. There are some instances of long term effects ‘Long -Covid’ as its called, but to date the effects are not life threatening – moreso ‘uncomfortable’. The enormous benefits associated with no blanket lockdown far outweighs the risk in this case.
But what about reports in Indonesia saying that some children have died of Covid-19?
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As with all third world countries infant mortality is still a problem due to a multitude of reasons, poverty contributing foremost. To date it is reported that 114 children under 5 may have died in Indonesia who tested positive to Covid-19. The actual cause of death is unclear in these cases. Any death is tragic, however this number is statistically insignificant given 19000 children under 5 died of pneumonia alone in 2019 in Indonesia. Once again, the economic impact of covid lockdowns is currently killing and has destroyed the lives of thousands on the island of Bali ( Indonesia) – due to lack of tourism caused by lockdowns. The risk Covid-19 poses to the young is no more than everyday life.
WRAP UP:
Of-course these are all just ideas, as is everything before implementation. I have an honours degree in Physics from Melbourne University, but I am not an expert on Epidemiology, Economic policy, Social Interaction, Mental Health and Psychology, Logistics or Politics.
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I am 100% certain however, that given the knowledge that this disease is NOT significantly dangerous to a very significant portion of the population, there MUST be a better – less globally devastating way – to collectively fight this terrible disease than the “Blunt Instrument Lockdown” measures currently employed.
Governments should listen, employ the services of the best minds in their countries, and produce a workable plan NOW. In 6 to 8 weeks from now there should be no reason for the current Draconian measures not to be discarded or greatly modified with massive global benefits. The new rapid Covid-19 testing kit rollout is a crucial part of the key, and could even enable meaningful travel if Governments put the resources into making it happen.
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ITS TIME TO RETHINK THE COVID LOCKDOWN BALANCE!
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Footnote: I’m also by nature a realist, and I fear inaction will be the ultimate result in relation to change by Governments worldwide unless they are well and truly fearful of the majority backlash. The people are the power as they say.. so in the end it’s up to YOU – and Everyone if you feel change is warranted.
About the author: As mentioned I have a Bachelor of Science (Hons) ( double major in Physics) from Melbourne University. I have worked as a RAAF pilot and as a Captain for numerous major airlines throughout the world. I reside in Asia – and have seen first hand the devastation in third world countries COVID-19 Lockdowns have caused. I have two daughters in Melbourne Australia, one of which is now suffering life threatening mental health issues as a direct result of COVID Lockdowns.
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