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Time To Fear Covid-19 Less Than The Flu.
*Disclaimer: – If you are in a First World ( Wealthy ) Country.
The Science And Numbers Are In! The Cold Hard Facts Need A Rational Response Now.
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Prior to the knowledge of Covid-19 – life was normal. No lockdowns, no border closures, restaurants, bars, schools open, sport, travel, social-life. Relatively – stress-free – life. Utopia.
Fast Forward to today and every country in the world anxiously tunes in to daily local Covid-19 ‘case numbers’ or deaths and ‘tragedy’ abroad – its an unescapable media frenzy of fear. Globally, – people – old and young – have become irrationally fearful about it. Simple as that, and its time to stop it.
Things HAVE CHANGED remarkably with the introduction of vaccines, in just a few months, – as the following hard data shows:
In The UK RIGHT NOW – COVID-19 Is Less Than ONE FIFTH As Deadly As The Seasonal Flu ( Pre-Covid-19.)
That’s regardless of rising case numbers and the dreaded ‘Delta’ variant.
Even if the numbers increase more than fivefold – Covid-19 will still be overall less deadly than the seasonal Flu/Pneumonia in the UK. [Ref. WHO Av. Daily Death 102 UK 2018]
Cold hard numbers from the Office For National Statistics ons.gov.uk
Take a look at these figures;
With Delta variant, UK cases are increasing – but DEATHS are not following like they were before in the last wave.
Covid-19 is now LESS DEADLY than the Flu in the UK!
Look at the graphs of the 7-day average (Av.) Daily Case numbers and associated Av. Deaths twelve days later, from periods at the start, at the peak, and right now of the Covid-19 U.K. pandemic. [Ref. Office for National Statistics ons.gov.uk]
Below it are the figures for the average daily death due to the Flu in the Utopian ‘Pre-Covid-19 times’ of 2018 and 2019.
The WHO figures for Flu and Pneumonia deaths in the U.K. come in at 37,494 for 2018. That makes it an average of 102 deaths per day – or just over five times the current 7-day average daily death due to Covid-19.
Similar numbers are coming from Israel ( 80% vaccinated ) – 2018 Flu deaths 6.7/ day, current Covid-19 7-day av. ZERO! In the USA where large portions of the community have been vaccinated, there are similar results. The same is happening globally in all First World countries where vaccination levels are increasing rapidly.
Even in India – with just a 3.6% vaccination rate, the deaths per day have HALVED and are now similar to the average daily pre-covid-19 flu/pneumonia deaths there already. It’s still tragic, but the point is even small vaccination levels are making a huge difference, and the media doesn’t spell out the entire story. – India usually has nearly 617,000 deaths annually from flu-related diseases. ( Av.1690/ daily flu deaths! The sheer numbers of flu deaths there raise fear to irrational levels to those of us not conditioned to it.)
In the First World everywhere – It’s simply GREAT news! – With moderate vaccination levels Covid-19 should be regarded as all but defeated! – But so far it seems to be falling on deaf ears...
Covid-19 Mortality In Comparison To The Flu Was Fundamental In Initiating The LOCKDOWN Mentality
The world stopped because Covid-19 was initially an unknown threat – it was killing many – and it was obviously far -far more deadly than the flu in older populations. The only disease with similar symptoms and a high death rate the world had to compare it with was the Flu/Pneumonia.
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) – is essentially the chance of death if infected by a disease. An IFR of 1.0% means you have a chance of death of 1 in 100 if actually infected.
With enormous data from all parts of the globe – we now know Covid-19 has an IFR of 5.4% in over 70-year-olds, compared to 0.1% IFR for the Flu over ALL age ranges. [Ref. CDC USA] In under 20 years old Covid-19 has .002% IFR ( negligible threat.) It is plainly obvious Covid-19 is NOT dangerous to the young, and the ONLY reason to stop them from getting it is to prevent them from spreading it to the old and vulnerable. The flu kills both the young and old.
The Flu has been around forever, the world is used to it – and accepts without question its significant annual death rate in the population. Feared – certainly – but not IRRATIONALLY feared. Never would it be considered to close borders and lockdown cities, destroy economies, lives and livelihoods, social life, the mental health of millions globally – to prevent inevitable flu deaths. Rightly so.
Rationally then, if Covid-19 can be reduced to only killing the same or fewer as the Flu/ Pneumonia in a population annually, surely it should be regarded as something to be feared – but not focused on at the expense of living a normal life.
We all die. That’s certain. Covid-19 kills mainly the vulnerable in communities – those with a pre-existing condition such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes, lung disease, or obesity. The brutal fact is – that those people are more vulnerable to death from many other causes too – and it’s impossible to completely protect them from everything. The world cannot stop – to protect people from ‘ normal’ levels of mortality.
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It must also be remembered – that many who die of Covid-19 now, would most likely be the ones who would succumb to the flu or death due to other causes should that have not happened. Hence the importance of EXCESS DEATH statistics in determining the real effect a disease is having on mortality.
So What Is An Acceptable Death Rate From Covid-19 Now Compared To The Flu Death Rate?
Logically – Rationally – if Covid-19 can be reduced to only being near or less deadly than the Flu/Pneumonia in a population, then surely it must be accepted as NORMAL. There can be no other reasonable measure. No one wants to die, but we all will. If we already accept the chances of dying of the flu as normal – we MUST accept the chance of Covid-19 death if it’s the same or less than that.
BENCHMARK: Av. Daily Covid-19 Death is Near or Less than Av. Daily Flu Death
When this benchmark is met or exceeded in a community – we certainly cannot continue on this irrational road of destroying the lives of our populations. We must be rational – enjoy our lives – and stop the fearful living in a futile chase for eternal life.
In the UK right now the figures exceed the benchmark by a county mile. Even if Av. Daily Covid-19 deaths increase by multiples to 100 /day – rationally it STILL should demand getting on with life – normally. It’s clearly obvious the days of Covid-19 being vastly more deadly than the flu – in this population – are well and truly over.
So WHY Are The Brits STILL Petrified By Covid-19!??
Despite the superb – irrefutable numbers – the UK is STILL in lockdown! A months extension. As if no one really minds the devastation to lives and livelihoods… ‘Better to be safe than sorry eh!’
So what numbers WILL be acceptable? – ZERO deaths? Maybe its a good idea to remain shut down and get ahead of the next – unknown – pandemic! – It will come – eventually!…’Stay safe’
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We have been conditioned with fear. It needs to stop.
Our Ability To Interpret Covid-19 Data Is Compromised Due To Relentless Media Frenzy Conditioning.
Our LEVEL of anxiety – fearfulness – ( conditioning by overwhelming media ) seriously affects HOW we interpret data. Given the unprecedented global media frenzy of fear, it’s important to step back and look at ourselves – to see if we are really being rational in regard to all things Covid-19 right now. Remember – it’s in the media’s interest to present data as sensationally as possible – hence the use of large ‘case numbers’ vs – far more relevant now – actual death numbers.
As an example, to illustrate the effect of our conditioning to fear – the numbers presented above without any commentary would most likely be analyzed as follows:
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Fearful conditioned perspective
“14,628 cases in the UK today (Jun 26)! Fear! Panic! OMG!!! … but – hang on – only 23 actual deaths resulted??? … Well, that’s a lot less than 1200 like before… – but that’s still too many! Fear! Anxiety! Panic!!. – I could die from Covi-19! When will it get to zero!? – The Delta variant is causing so many more cases! – we should keep safe and stay in lockdown – the consequences are insignificant compared to this!”
If you are a normal human – and are conditioned by fear – those reactions are understandable. But they are NOT rational! We don’t want to believe anything but negative news, because we are conditioned with fear….
Fearfully conditioned humans focus on the worst possible case scenario, in a self-sustaining loop of anxiety that is incredibly hard to break. After enduring the enormous loss of life and personal tragedy – UK citizens cannot be blamed for being overcome with fear. Interestingly – on the other side of the globe – the media reporting alone has caused most Australians to also fit into this category now
Such is the conditioned response now, anything to do with Covid-19 causes irrational Fear Of Death -vaccinated or not. A single ‘case’ initiates an irrational conditional response in many parts of the fearful world now… ( e.g Australia )
Rational – non-conditioned perspective
Now let’s look at it from a rational – unaffected point of view.
“14,628 cases in Uk today. Looks like cases are increasing. Probably because the ‘Delta’ variant is more contagious . Wow – but look – even with more cases – only 23 actual deaths! (7 day Av 17 deaths) – Seems like case numbers are not translating to deaths anymore – that’s great news! Delta variant is not more deadly. This seems to be the same with all variants since they’re all present. It appears the vaccines are able to combat them all. Look at the start of the pandemic – 3900 cases with close to 1000 deaths. Massive difference! At the height of the carnage – 1200/ day dying – but now just 17/day. The flu kills far more than that daily on average! This is AWESOME NEWS! Looks like covid-19 is no longer the threat it was! We don’t lockdown for flu/pneumonia deaths – these numbers are well below that benchmark death rate – we should just respect this disease but get on with our lives!”
A rational unaffected person would also require further investigation.
In this case, if we do so – it adds to the good news story!
Even worst-case hospitalization scenarios see the UK NHS nowhere near overloaded. [Ref. The Spectator.co.uk] The length of time in hospital is already reduced enormously for the relatively few now that are presenting. Treatment has improved, more people have a level of immunity. Vaccination is boosting that daily.
Vitally important – Actual deaths now are so few compared to the case numbers and EXCESS DEATH in the UK is now well below the seasonal daily average.
{ In the next EnriLife.co post we will explain and discuss the vital importance of Excess Deaths in relation to Covid-19. Simplistically – If the Excess Death rate is around its average – it means the chance of dying – from any disease – is the same with or without any particular disease present in the community. The vulnerable – or unlucky – die every day. Maybe from heart disease – maybe from stroke, flu, or maybe from covid-19. Something gets them. If on average the same NUMBER of people die from all causes each day, there is nothing to rationally fear, since your chances of death have not been increased.}
In the UK- rationally – Covid-19 has been reduced to a nasty disease – less deadly than flu – and no longer requires desperate – EMERGENCY- enormously damaging in their own right – measures to contain its spread.
Logically, rationally – the UK should be seeing those numbers and leaping out of restrictions.
Sadly – to explain why this hasn’t already happened and the implications of the numbers shouted from the rooftops – remember – politicians and media editors are human too, and they have also been sucked into the irrational focus and fear of the wretched Covid-19 soul-less satan.
‘Frenzy-of-Fear’ also sells newspapers like wildfire of course – and a fearful electorate makes for easy control and indeed re-election – ( but perhaps that’s too cynical…)
IRRATIONAL FEAR vs FACT
Once conditioned to be fearful its extremely hard to overcome it – there are many excellent papers explaining this – a good one relating to COVID-19 specifically is;
[REF adaa.org Flatten Covid Fear With Facts ]
Here are a few examples of how misguided by irrational fear humans in the USA are found to be:
Focusing on the negative information from the media – Americans overestimate the risk of the virus:
- Americans believe that 50% of all COVID-19 deaths are people age 55 and older. The actual figure is 92%.
- Americans believe that people age 44 and younger account for about 30% of total deaths. The actual figure is 2.7%.
- Americans overestimate the risk of death from COVID-19 for people 24 and younger by a factor of 50.
Prior to vaccination protection;
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of people that carry the infection, regardless of having clinical symptoms or not.
The IFR is the rate of death once you have the virus.
The CDC determined the Infection Fatality Rate of Covid-19 for various age groups (these calculations change over time with new information):
- 0.003% for 0–19 years, ( zero chance of death)
- 0.02% for 20–49 years, (virtually zero)
- 0.5% for 50–69 years, and. (99.5% chance you will live)
- 5.4% for 70+ years. SO its about 5/100 chance of actually dying for over 70 y/o’s – IF you get it. No where near a certain death sentence as is the perception. This was BEFORE vaccinations!
For purpose of comparison, the World Health Organization has stated that influenza has an overall Infection Fatality Rate of 0.1% or lower.
TIME TO STOP THE IRRATIONAL FEAR OF COVID-19. Especially in First World (wealthy) countries where vaccinations are there for all.
It’s about time we all sat back and looked, analyzed, breathed – and soaked up the soothing numbers that tell the sensational story of human success in regard to Covid-19 vaccinations – and the incredible impact they are now having in most First World countries.
As the numbers are showing – with large amounts of vaccination ( even well below the 70% WHO ‘target’ level) Covid-19 is less deadly than the flu – and we can take reasonable precautions if in the at-risk group. As community vaccination rises wherever we are, we most certainly should no longer accept our lives/livelihoods/sport/ travel/mental health and social life, etc, etc, etc – to be sacrificed as before.
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A rational approach is needed by the People and the Governments
In order for the world to truly defeat Covid-19 and importantly its destruction of quality of life – all of us need to consciously attempt to reset our anxiety levels. Relevant numbers – deaths and excess deaths – tell the story – believe them. Case numbers are a media and often political – smokescreen now. Governments should produce serious hospitalisation, vaccination, and importantly death and EXCESS DEATH figures to be transparent. As the UK figures show – simple ‘case numbers’ are seriously misleading now.
A National Benchmark Should Be Clearly Stated For Each Nation.
Importantly also – a national benchmark should be clearly stated and adhered to in relation to Covid-19 death rates and the need for measures to be taken. Without such – governments have an open slather to impose arbitrary restrictions at will. A reasonable, rational, realistic benchmark would be as follows.
BENCHMARK: Av. Daily Covid-19 Death is Near or Less than Av. Daily Flu Death
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Covid-19 will never be eliminated in our lifetimes. Most likely there will always now be some deaths in our communities due to it. The only way we can overcome the irrational fear we have been conditioned to feel – is to realize that once most are vaccinated – our actual chances of dying are no more with covid-19 present now, as they were before – pre -2019 – before covid-19 existed.
This is the case with even a partially vaccinated population. Death rates are well below reasonable benchmark figures already. The numbers show it – but no one is shouting it out – for reasons as discussed previously.
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TIME TO STOP THE IRRATIONAL FEAR OF COVID-19. Especially in First World ( wealthy ) countries where vaccinations are there for all.
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